Event Signal

Query event probability and volume change.

GET/api/v1/prediction/events/{event_id}/signal

Domain

Prediction

Level

Prediction event

MCP tool

prediction_markets_query (task=event_signal)

Available data

Returns: Event probability and volume change
Market coverage: Polymarket and predict.fun
Query granularity: One event per query; figures are event-level, not a single-market book

Authentication

Send Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY or X-API-KEY on every request.

Query Parameters

Object positioning

The path ID is required.

event_idstringpathExamplepolymarket:139537required

Prediction event_ref (e.g. polymarket:139537).

Reference filters

All optional.

event_refstringqueryExamplepolymarket:139537optional

Event natural key or reference.

market_refstringqueryExamplepolymarket:1090479optional

Market natural key or reference.

Response

event_identityobject

Canonical event fields

event_refstringExamplepolymarket:139537

Canonical event ref

venuestringExamplepolymarket

Prediction venue

venue_event_idstringExample139537

Venue-native event id

titlestringExampleRecord crypto liquidation in 2026?

Event title

statusstringExampleactive

Event status

closes_atdatetime | null

Scheduled close time

opened_atdatetime | nullExample2026-01-03T05:41:53.000+0000

Event open time

resolved_atdatetime | null

Resolution time

status_as_ofdatetime | nullExample2026-08-17T06:42:31.000+0000

Status observation time

directional_contextobject

Lead market + directional eligibility

probability_change_6hnumber | null

Six-hour probability change

category_ai_primarystringExamplecrypto_price

Primary AI category for the event

market_category_ai_primarystringExamplecrypto_price

Primary AI category for the lead market

directional_eligiblebooleanExampletrue

Whether the event is treated as directional

lead_market_idstringExample1090479

Lead market id

lead_market_titlestringExampleRecord crypto liquidation in 2026?

Lead market title

market_questionstringExampleRecord crypto liquidation in 2026?

Lead-market question

venue_event_titlestringExampleRecord crypto liquidation in 2026?

Venue event title

mid_yes_probabilitynumber | null

Mid yes probability when known

model_judgement_requiredbooleanExampletrue

True when a model judgement is still required

outcome_probabilitiesobject

Probability aggregates for yes / no

mid_yes_probabilitynumber | null

Mid yes probability

mid_no_probabilitynumber | null

Mid no probability

probability_change_1hnumber | null

1h probability change

probability_change_6hnumber | null

6h probability change

probability_change_24hnumber | null

24h probability change

volume_flowobject

Liquidity and 24h volume aggregates

total_liquidity_usdnumberExample2799.77

Total liquidity in USD

total_volume_usd_24hnumberExample0

Total 24h volume in USD

markets[]object[]

Venue markets on the event (market_title, venue_market_id)

market_titlestringExampleRecord crypto liquidation in 2026?

Venue market title

venue_market_idstringExample1090479

Venue-native market id

data_statusDataStatusExamplepartial

Availability of the business data; same values as metadata.data_status

empty_reasonstring | nullExampleprobability_missing

Partial / empty reason (e.g. probability_missing)

signal_timedatetimeExample2026-08-17T07:00:00.000+0000

Signal time of the lead market; also returned in metadata

metadataobject

Response status and resolution information

data_statusDataStatusExamplepartial

ready / partial / …

signal_timedatetime | stringExample2026-08-17T07:00:00.000+0000

Signal time in metadata when present

limitations[]string[]Exampledata_partial

Known data limitations

updated_atdatetime | stringExample2026-08-17T07:00:00.000+0000

Most recent object or response update time

partialbooleanExampletrue

Whether the response contains only a subset of fields

object_refs[]object[]

Unified object references

typeObjectRefTypeExampleevent

Object reference type

idstringExamplepolymarket:139537

Canonical object identifier

event_refstringExamplepolymarket:139537

Related event identifier

venuestringExamplepolymarket

Related platform code

Errors & fallback

200

assets_resolve name multi-match; confirm from data[] candidates.

200

The object resolved but no data is available; empty_reason may be not_covered_by_source, unsupported_metric, or limited_depth.

400

Invalid parameters or an ambiguous market listing; ambiguity responses include required_params + candidates.

401

The API key is missing or invalid.

403

The current key scope or plan cannot access this data domain.

404

The requested resource does not exist; source coverage gaps are not 404 responses.

402

Credits or monthly quota exhausted.

429

Request rate exceeded; retry_after is returned in the body and Retry-After in the response headers.